Betting maths on the numbers you enter. Amounts are in pounds (£).
Everything is worked out in your browser. Nothing you type is sent or saved.
| Home goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Enter how many goals each team is expected to score. The Poisson distribution gives the chance of each exact number: P(k) = e−λ × λk ÷ k!, where λ is the expected goals. Treating the two teams as independent, multiplying their chances gives every scoreline, and adding scorelines gives home, draw and away.
Real matches aren't fully independent (draws tend to be a little more common), so treat it as a model.
Results are a record of maths on the numbers you enter, not advice.
